Analysis of New Voters in Kansas by Congressional District

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.A recent Meadowlark article, More new Democrats than Republicans register to vote in Kansas in 2008, gave statewide totals for 2007 and 2008 through early Sept. This article analyzes differences in new voter registration by the four Kansas congressional districts in the same two years. Future articles will look at new voter registration by State Senate and State Rep districts.

Kansas has two Democrats in Congress, Nancy Boyda in the 2nd District, and Dennis Moore in the 3rd District, and two Republicans in Congress, Jerry Moran in the 1st District, and Todd Tiahrt in the 4th District. With more Republicans than Democrats in all four congressional districts, with Republican Lynn Jenkins opposing Nancy Bodya in the 2nd District, and with Republican Nick Jordan opposing Dennis Moore in the 3rd District, are Democrats focusing their voter registration efforts to Districts 2 and 3? Or, with Democrat Donald Betts facing Todd Tiahrt, and Democrat James Bordonaro facing Jerry Moran, are Democrats using a full-court press in all congressional districts, which would also benefit Democrat Senatorial candidate Jim Slattery?

See charts below for new voters registered by Kansas congressional district for 2007 and 2008 through early Sept 2008.

2007 baseline. Last year is a good baseline for comparison since there were no statewide partisan elections. In all four congressional districts, there were more new unaffiliated voters (U’s) than Democrats (D’s) or Republicans (R’s). In District 1, new R’s exceeded new D’s by about 2-to-1, and in District 4 the ratio was about 1.4-to-1. But, in Districts 2 and 3, both which have Democratic representation in Congress, the ratios were smaller: 1.1-to-1 in District 2, and only 1.07-to-1 in District 3.

2008. The charts below show a different story in 2008 than in 2007. New Republican registration exceeded U’s and D’s in District 1, but was behind both U’s and D’s in Districts 2, 3, and 4. In District 3, new D’s exceeded new U’s for most of the year, but are almost tied at the present time.

Democrats appear to be using new voter registration in all congressional districts, except District 1 in Western Kansas. These new voters may benefit Democratic congressional candidates, Boyda, Moore and Betts, and Senate candidate Slattery. Certainly, the new voter registrations by Democrats will help them in any close election.

The drive to register new voters in Kansas goes on, especially by Kansas Democrats. KBMZ Radio reported several days ago that Johnson County Election Commissioner Bryan Newby said Barack Obama’s supporters turned in an additional 500 new voter registration forms in a recent day.

How new voters break down in contested Kansas House and Senate races will be the subject of a future article.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.